← FTG PTM Regional Championship
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at FTG PTM Regional Championship
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.1%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1445
· median 1445
· range 1445–1445
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1190
Q3 1381
1656
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.1 |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
